Trends seem obvious in hindsight – but anticipating them before others has made many people very wealthy. They’re the ones who bought Apple shares for $1 in 2003 and watched the price exceed $200 in 2018. Or the ones who bought Blockbuster Video stock in the 1980s and sold it at its peak in 2002 before its 10-year decline into Netflix-induced irrelevance.
We’ve seen this firsthand, having been involved in the estates of many who “got in early”, moved ahead of the curve and capitalized.
While societal norms and consumer habits are always changing, not every change is one you can cash in on. For example, manual razor sales from stores fell by 5.1% year-over-year – their third straight year of decline. A key reason behind the decline is a simple one: people are shaving less.
Razor manufacturer Gillette says that men shaved an average of 3.2 times per week, compared to 3.7 times per week a decade ago. Stubble is now an acceptable look and more men are growing out their beards. CNN wrote about it recently.
While this is certainly a trend, razors continue to be sold and shaving product companies are adapting (with strategies such as lower prices and a move into beard grooming products). It’s likely not a game-changer.
Breakfast cereals are the same. Sales are down 11% over the past five years as people look for more natural, healthy alternatives – or the takeout convenience of breakfast sandwiches. But take one look down the grocery aisle and you’ll see that cereals are a long way from becoming the Blockbuster Video of food.
So, what change will be monumental?
Where should we be looking to find the next “big thing”, like Amazon and Uber? Like you, I don’t have a crystal ball, but here are my two picks for big changes that could disrupt our world and create opportunities.
- Automobiles: More than 30,000 people continue to die each year in U.S. auto accidents (Canada is typically about 10% of these numbers, so about the same rate). People will look back at the 20th and 21st centuries as barbaric for the number of lives lost crashing metal into metal. We know that driverless cars (and virtually risk-free driving) are coming, but what else will change (auto insurance, in-car entertainment options, ownership models, a declining need for personal injury lawyers)? There could be many related growth trends.
- Farming and meat: Vegetarianism and veganism are growing – along with our ability to manufacture artificial meat. That combination may be enough to turn the traditional food industry on its head. The trick is to identify the companies that could potentially dominate if the trend to less real meat continues.
There are many other possibilities of course. Have you spotted any? Are you moving ahead of the curve?
Thanks for reading!